Aluminum smelters to restart operations or reduce the size of the global aluminum market supply shortage

Release time:

2014-09-28

Aluminum smelters to restart operations or reduce the size of the global aluminum market supply shortage

London, September 25 news, aluminum prices rise or incentives to give up part of Chinese smelters cut production plan, and some other smelters to restart production, which is the size or reduce the shortage in the global aluminum market oversupply for many years after first appearing.

London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices rose during the year, coupled with a record premium, significantly improved the financial plight of many aluminum smelters.

BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) metals strategist Stephen Briggs said: "This year's aluminum smelting industry profits improved significantly, almost all from the majority of losses into profits and therefore, the risk will be the next city aluminum smelters to restart production.."

"Will soon be able to know the amount of the shortage of aluminum market will shrink much."

LME aluminum prices in the seven months ended August cumulative soared 27% to 18-month highs. But since then pared some aluminum increases, but so far accumulated during the year increased by about 10%.

Aluminum prices this year, partly due to market speculation that the aluminum market supply shortage.

Analysts survey done in July showed that the market expects the global aluminum market will be excess supply 235,500 tons in 2015 will be a shortage of 4,444 tons. Some analysts expect the next two years will be in short supply.

Market that supply shortages will occur mainly due to the recent global aluminum producer to cut millions of tons of production capacity, but as part of the smelters to restart production, some analysts may adjust estimates.

Chinese smelters to restart production concern, because prices fell so many high-cost smelters subject to significant impact, but it has resumed operations.

Consultancy AZ China's Richard Lu said so far this year, China had approximately 1.3 million tons of annual capacity to resume operation.

He said: "We think northwest Gansu small amount of capacity will restart, restart this year aluminum smelter with an annual capacity of approximately 1.6 million tons possible."

German commercial banks (Commerzbank) said in a report that China August primary aluminum production increased 8.8%, to 2.027 million tons, 2 million tons for the first time as break points.

Analysts said that as of now, smelters outside China did a lot of the restart, but aluminum prices continue to go strong and robust premium will attract some manufacturers to restart production.

Last week, Japanese aluminum premiums mostly set at a record high of 420 dollars per ton, an increase of 70%. While Europe and the U.S. aluminum premium levels are hovering at record highs.

The world's largest aluminum producer - United Company Rusal (United Company Rusal) said on Tuesday that if aluminum prices strong, about 40 percent of the company was mothballed capacity may restart.

AZ China's Paul Adkins said: "I ??expect Rusal will soon resume operations, a smelter, and may even in this year, but Alcoa (Alcoa) may need to consider when to restart production until the LME aluminum prices rose to $ 2,700 . "

Adkins from AZ China, said the resumption of production although Alcoa aluminum smelter closed aluminum need to wait until at least $ 2,500 can only be profitable, but the Russian aluminum at a lower price can restart the smelter.

But Rusal spokesman said the company will reach to restart the smelter will be considered when the LME aluminum price of $ 2,500-2,700 per ton.

The spokesman said: "Other factors include the impact of the restart of alumina costs and the ruble against the dollar."

Rusal Deputy CEO Vladislav Soloviev said, though it may restart the smelter, but Rusal expects global aluminum market next year will be in short supply 120-130 million tons, 1.5 million tons less than this year's short-term.

LME three-month aluminum on Thursday to close at two-month lows of $ 1,950 a tonne, down 1.3 percent.